Model Course
Aggregazione dei criteri
Task 2: Building the Expected Value Model
Your first approach is to make a single model taking the expected values!
Create an averaged scenario that takes all values in consideration with their probability. You can take the probabilities from these tables.
| Scenario |
Definition
|
Probability
|
|---|---|---|
|
0
|
ENS_Low, All biomasses
|
10% |
| 1 |
ENS_Low, No forestry residues
|
25% |
| 2 |
ENS_Low, No forestry, no agriculture and landscape residues
|
15% |
| 3 |
ENS_Mid, All biomasses
|
10% |
| 4 |
ENS_Mid, No forestry residues
|
25% |
| 5 |
ENS_Mid, No forestry, no agriculture and landscape residues
|
15% |
| Scenario | Definition | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 |
EU Ref 2016 100%
|
50% |
| 1 |
EU Ref 2016 150%
|
50% |
Task: Calculate the data for biomass availability as well as biomass cost and demands. Then run the new scenario and have a look at the results.